The Black Swan is a term you may hear in business and statistics, but what does it really mean? Firstly I need to clarify what it is not. It does not just mean a rare event. Yes, it is a rare event but something else is required. It is an event when a rare event occurs that was never expected to occur and thus would result in a paradigm shift.
To give you an example, it was believed that swans that are black could never exist. The term was seen as almost being like an oxymoron. To refer to something as such would be like referring to a waterless flood. However in 1697 Willem de Vlamingh came across such a swan in Western Australia. This resulted in a paradigm shift; black swans exist when believed they never could.
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Something that would not be a Black Swan event would be winning the national lottery. Yes, it is a very rare event but you do expect that you could win. And if you do win, it's a nice surprise but it does not change how you think about or view the lottery. It does not result in a change in paradigm.
What you may have figured out then is that you can never say something will be a Black Swan event or that you can see one coming. If you say that something could happen (but is unlikely to) then the term cannot be used. It is just something unlikely, and the fact that you are considering it means it is part of your paradigm.
The term is often wrongly used in the business world. The recent recession from the sub-prime mortgage crisis was sometimes referred to as a Black Swan event. It is not, as the crash was from over supply of credit to those unable to pay it (and derivative paper products that draw value from sub-prime mortgages). This always had a chance of resulting in a crash sooner or later; it a part of standard economic theory (the paradigm we refer to).
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has written an excellent book about this event, and for those wanting to understand this more they should consider reading it.
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Dec 01, 2011 04:25:15
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